"Where is Global Finance heading?
|Monday, July 13, 2009|
|09:00||Welcome Coffee and Registration
|09:15 - 09:30||Julio Velarde, Governor, Central Reserve Bank of Peru
Marc Uzan, Executive Director, Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee
|09:30 - 11:00||SESSION I TIME OF UPHEAVAL : WHERE IS GLOBAL FINANCE HEADING?
Chair: Marc-Olivier Strauss-Kahn, Executive Director, Inter-American Development Bank Group
Has the series of G20 meeting have changed the landscape of global finance?
While it is too early to exit from crisis response policies, it is necessary to define how and when such an exit should occur. What will it mean for the major countries, and for the emerging world? Will the global economy be going back to the pre crisis imbalances but with a different pattern?
The crisis has modified the landscape: US consumers have increased saving and fiscal expansion is taking place in China, and we are seeing the disappearance of current account deficits in central and eastern Europe.
What will be the impact of a shrinking financial and banking industry on the financing of emerging markets and more generally what role can we expect it to play going forward in facilitating sustainable world economic growth?
|11:20 - 13:00||SESSION II EMERGING ECONOMIES IN THE INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM THE WAY FORWARD
Chair: Manuel Marfán, Board Member, Central Bank of Chile
|15:00 - 16:15||SESSION III IS THE FUNCTIONING OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE OF THE CRISIS?
Chair: Heenam Choi, Director General, Ministry of Finance, Korea
Did the international monetary system contribute to the crisis through the role of monetary fiscal and exchange policies in the systemic countries in creating imbalances in the international monetary system?
Can a stable global financial and trading system successfully combine major countries with currencies that are essentially fixed while other currencies float? Should countries avoid large current account deficits, even when those appear largely justified by fundamentals, such as strong growth prospects? Conversely, can sustained very large surpluses be a source of instability for the system?
|16:35 - 18:00||SESSION IV FUTURE OF THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY AND FINANCIAL ORDER Roundtable discussion
Chair: Marc Uzan, Executive Director, Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee and Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics, NYU
|Tuesday, July 14, 2009|
|09:15 - 10:25||SESSION V THE DOLLAR TRAP : WHAT ARE THE OPTIONS FOR THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM?
Chair: Philip Poole, Managing Director, Global Head of Emerging Markets Research and Chief Economist for Emerging Markets, HSBC Bank
The dollar remains the key reserve asset but the continuation of a dollar based system is being questioned. Its stability relies on us policy credibility eroded today by weak financial regulation and difficult exit from monetary, fiscal and bank intervention.
The global financial system faces a challenge with a high demand for reserves but also with doubts about the stability of reserve assets. If we were in a pure floating exchange rate regime, there would be no need to hold foreign reserve for currency defense, but exchange rates have real effects and no country is fully indifferent to its level and change. So Central bank hold reserves as an insurance against shocks.
Is this crisis will reinforce the desire for large precautionary reserve holdings by emerging economies? How to analyze the different swaps agreements among central banks during the crisis?
|10:45 - 12:30||SESSION VI WHAT ARE THE OPTIONS FOR THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM?
Chair: Pilar LHotellerie-Fallois, Associate Director General, International Affairs, Bank of Spain
Can we see the emergence of multiple currency reserves? Instead of leaving it to individual countries, the task of issuing reserves could be multilateralized? Can the SDR play that role but if so can it evolve to remove the illiquidity of the asset? (sdr are illiquid, hard to issue and hard to use?) Historically, the criteria used for the needs of SDR in the global financial system has been the need of global liquidity. Is it the case today?
What are the prospects and current regional monetary arrangements? Will it make a difference in the configuration of the international monetary system?
Can emerging countries need for reserves be effectively reduced by insurance arrangements, or lending arrangements? What role can Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) play? In an expanded role, can they truly lead to a different composition of reserves? Could they be the first step towards an international currency, and if so, how?
|14:30 - 16:00||SESSION VII THE STAKE OF EMERGING ECONOMIES IN THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM
Chair: Mikhail Mizhinskiy, Project Coordinator, Post Crisis World Foundation
Current global financial events seem to indicate that there is a new geography of international finance. The notions of the center and periphery are not any more relevant to understand the current evolution of the global financial system. So in this effect, is the perception and nature of the emerging markets class changing as a consequence? How emerging markets are asserting in this global scenario?
What lessons the emerging world will learn from this financial turbulence? We are seeing new swap agreements among China and other central banks, an agreement from China and Brazil to settle trade in non dollar currencies. What do the emerging economies expect from the system and how they can also become an anchor of stability?
|16:15 - 16:30||Conclusion & Next Steps by Marc Uzan and Nouriel Roubini