WP 2005-07: A BVAR Forecasting Model For Peruvian Inflation
WP 2005-07: A BVAR Forecasting Model For Peruvian Inflation
WP 2005-07: A BVAR Forecasting Model For Peruvian Inflation
N°
WP 2005-07
Title
A BVAR Forecasting Model For Peruvian Inflation
Original title
Un Modelo de Proyección BVAR Para la Inflación Peruana
Author(s)
Gonzalo Llosa, Vicente Tuesta and Marco Vega
Language
Spanish
Date
2005/11/30
Abstract
We build a simple non-structural BVAR forecasting framework to predict key Peruvian macroeconomic data, in particular, inflation and output. Unlike standard applications we build our Litterman prior specification based on the fact that the structure driving the dynamics of the economy might have shifted towards a state where a clear nominal anchor has become well grounded (Inflation Targeting). We compare different BVAR specifications with respect to a "naive" random walk and we find that they outperform the random walk in terms of inflation forecasts at all horizons. However, our PBI forecasts are not accurate enough to beat a "naive" random walk.