Home

WP 2011-16: Global uncertainty over the South Pacific

WP 2011-16
TitleGlobal uncertainty over the South Pacific
Original titleIncertidumbre Global sobre el Pacífico Sur
Author(s) Yan Carrière-Swallow and Carlos Medel
Language Spanish
Date 2011-11-31
Abstract

According to a growing literature, sudden increases in financial uncertainty trigger drops in economic activity around the world. Existing models suggest that these effects are likely to differ across sectors of the economy. In this paper, we estimate the impact of global uncertainty shocks on sectors of the Chilean and Peruvian economies. Using vector autoregressions, we find that these shocks are responsible for a fall in GDP of 1.7 and 1.0% with respect to trend, respectively. At the sectorial level in Chile, the largest fall on the supply side is estimated to take place in construction (-4.0%), while on the demand side durable-goods consumption (-7.0%) and investment in plant and equipment (-10.0%) are hardest hit. For Peru, the drop in demand is primarily estimated to take place in private investment (-6.0%), while manufacturing (-4.0%) sees the largest fall on the supply side.

Download link Download WP: Global uncertainty over the South Pacific

Follow us

Jobs and Internships opportunities

Parts Desk

Opening hours:

Monday to Friday: 9:00 am - 4:30 pm

Virtual Front Desk

mesadepartesvirtual@bcrp.gob.pe

(PDF format, maximum 15 MB)