Abstract |
According to a growing literature, sudden increases in financial uncertainty trigger drops in economic activity around the world. Existing models suggest that these effects are likely to differ across sectors of the economy. In this paper, we estimate the impact of global uncertainty shocks on sectors of the Chilean and Peruvian economies. Using vector autoregressions, we find that these shocks are responsible for a fall in GDP of 1.7 and 1.0% with respect to trend, respectively. At the sectorial level in Chile, the largest fall on the supply side is estimated to take place in construction (-4.0%), while on the demand side durable-goods consumption (-7.0%) and investment in plant and equipment (-10.0%) are hardest hit. For Peru, the drop in demand is primarily estimated to take place in private investment (-6.0%), while manufacturing (-4.0%) sees the largest fall on the supply side. |