Home

WP 2009-13: Sectoral business cycles in Peru and leading indicators for non-primary GDP growth

WP 2009-13
TitleSectoral business cycles in Peru and leading indicators for non-primary GDP growth
Original titleCiclos sectoriales de los negocios en el Perú e indicadores anticipados para el crecimiento del PBI no primario
Author(s) Carlos Barrera
Language Spanish
Date 2009/06/30
Abstract

The paper describes the stylized facts of Peruvian business cycles since the 1990s. Following the NBER methodology, the paper identifies the peaks and troughs from 1994 to 2007. The YoY non-primary production growth turns out to be the benchmark. The paper shows that an aggregate common cycle in the Peruvian economy does not exist (asynchrony). Besides, not only the amplitude of sectoral business cycles has risen recently, but also they occur one after the other. Both results imply that the structural reforms implemented in the early 1990s increased the flexibility of the economy to absorb adverse shocks (resilience). Finally, the paper proposes a criterion for building a leading indicator index whenever an aggregate cycle is not available. This index is able to anticipate the start of the recessive phase in the second semester of 2008, which may be the beginning of the first aggregate common cycle in Peru.

Download link Download WP: Sectoral business cycles in Peru and leading indicators for non-primary GDP growth

Follow us

Jobs and Internships opportunities

Parts Desk

Opening hours:

Monday to Friday: 9:00 am - 4:30 pm

Virtual Front Desk

mesadepartesvirtual@bcrp.gob.pe

(PDF format, maximum 15 MB)