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WP 2005-07: A BVAR Forecasting Model For Peruvian Inflation

WP 2005-07
TitleA BVAR Forecasting Model For Peruvian Inflation
Original titleUn Modelo de Proyección BVAR Para la Inflación Peruana
Author(s) Gonzalo Llosa, Vicente Tuesta and Marco Vega
Language Spanish
Date 2005/11/30
Abstract

We build a simple non-structural BVAR forecasting framework to predict key Peruvian macroeconomic data, in particular, inflation and output. Unlike standard applications we build our Litterman prior specification based on the fact that the structure driving the dynamics of the economy might have shifted towards a state where a clear nominal anchor has become well grounded (Inflation Targeting). We compare different BVAR specifications with respect to a "naive" random walk and we find that they outperform the random walk in terms of inflation forecasts at all horizons. However, our PBI forecasts are not accurate enough to beat a "naive" random walk.

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