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WP 2014-22: Stock market development and real economic activity in Peru

WP 2014-22
TitleStock market development and real economic activity in Peru
Author(s) Erick Lahura and Marco Vega
Language English
Date 2014/12/31
Abstract

We explore the causal effect of stock market development on real economic activity in Peru. Based on the predictions of a simple growth model, we estimate vector autoregressive models and identify stock market shocks by imposing long-run restrictions in the dynamic response of real output per capita. Using annual time series data for the period 1965-2013, we find that stock market shocks have had a short-run causal effect on real GDP per capita only after 1991, a result that is consistent with standard Granger causality tests; however, the contribution of stock market shocks to output growth dynamics have been small. Thus, policy actions aimed at further developing the Peruvian stock market may have a positive impact on the dynamics of economic growth.

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