Abstract |
Over the last 30 years, the Peruvian economy has shown a dramatic
decrease in the volatility of its macroeconomic aggregates. Following
Primiceri (2005), Benati (2008) and GalÌ and Gambetti (2009),
a Bayesian structural vector autoregression with time-varying parameters
and variance covariance matrix of the innovations is used to
analyse the underlying causes of Peruvian ìGreat Moderationî. The
peruvian economy is modelled using real GDP growth, ináation and
the rate of growth of M1 (money base). Our main results show: (1)
Monetary policy has contributed signiÖcantly to the ìGreat Moderationîby
reducing the volatility of its non-systematic component and by
changing its reaction function to demand and supply shocks; (2) Structural
reforms also contributed to reduce the responsiveness of GDP and
ináation to demand and supply shocks (3) During the period of high
volatility, supply and policy shocks were the most important determinants
of macroeconomic instability.
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