http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/ Política monetaria, Publicaciones, Estadísticas, Transparencia es-pe http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/ webmaster@bcrp.gob.pe http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-04-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-04-2012.pdf Corporate interest rate in nuevos soles at 5.26 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.23 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 26.36 billion at January 24. Exchange rate: S/. 2.692 per US dollar. International reserves register a record level of US$ 50.4 billion. Liquidity and credit to the private sector at December 31, 2011. Fiscal surplus of S/. 7.98 billion recorded in 2011. Country risk at 221 basis points. Lima Stock Exchange. Friday, 27 Jan 2012 18:44:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Reserves-Management/2011/International-Reserves-December-2011.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Reserves-Management/2011/International-Reserves-December-2011.pdf At the end of December 2011, gross international reserves (GIR) amounted to USD 48 859 million, USD 232 million lower than the previous month. Tuesday, 24 Jan 2012 13:50:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2012/documento-de-trabajo-05-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2012/documento-de-trabajo-05-2012.pdf In order to quantify the effects of monetary policy, this paper employs an alternative empirical measure of monetary policy shocks based on market expectations obtained from media and survey information in Peru. Using monthly data for the period 2003-2011, we use the proposed measure as a variable representing exogenous variation in monetary policy and evaluate its dynamic impact on output and prices. The results show a coherent picture of the effects of monetary policy compared to alternative approaches in terms of both the magnitude and the timing of the effects. Tuesday, 24 Jan 2012 13:18:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-03-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-03-2012.pdf Corporate interest rate in nuevos soles at 5.26 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.24 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 26.54 billion at January 17. Exchange rate: S/. 2.692 per US dollar. International reserves reach a record high of US$ 50.3 billion. GDP grew 5 percent in November. Country risk at 235 basis points. Friday, 20 Jan 2012 19:31:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2012/documento-de-trabajo-04-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2012/documento-de-trabajo-04-2012.pdf The slope of the sticky information Phillips curve proposed by Mankiw and Reis (2002) is based on the degree of information rigidity on the part of firms. Carroll (2003) uses an epidemiology model of expectations and finds evidence for the U.S. of a one-year lag in the transmission of information from professional forecasters to households. Using financial institutions? and firms? survey data from Peru and the model proposed by Carroll, I estimate the degree of information rigidity for the Peruvian economy. This paper also considers heterogeneous responses and explores the cross-sectional dimension of these survey forecasts. I find that the degree of information stickiness is such that it takes between one and three quarters for updating information, a result that is robust to different specifications. Tuesday, 17 Jan 2012 15:36:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2012/documento-de-trabajo-03-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2012/documento-de-trabajo-03-2012.pdf We build a small open economy, real business cycle model with labor market frictions to evaluate the role of employment protection in shaping business cycles in emerging economies. The model features matching frictions and an endogenous selection effect by which inefficient jobs are destroyed in recessions. In a quantitative version of the model calibrated to the Mexican economy we find that reducing separation costs to a level consistent with developed economies would reduce output volatility by 15 percent. We also use the model to analyze the Mexican crisis episode of 2008 and conclude that an economy with lower separation costs would have experienced a smaller drop in output and in measured total factor productivity with no significant change in aggregate employment. Tuesday, 17 Jan 2012 15:35:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2012/documento-de-trabajo-02-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2012/documento-de-trabajo-02-2012.pdf This paper presents a partial equilibrium characterization of the credit market in an economy with partial ?financial dollarization. Financial frictions, in the form of costly state veri?cation and banking regulation restrictions, are introduced and their impact on lending and deposit interest rates denominated in domestic and foreign currency studied. The analysis shows that reserve requirements act as a tax that leads banks to decrease deposit rates, while the wedge between foreign and domestic currency lending rates is decreasing in exchange rate volatility and increasing in the degree of correlation between entrepreneur?s returns and the exchange rate. Tuesday, 17 Jan 2012 15:34:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-02-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-02-2012.pdf Corporate interest rate in nuevos soles at 5.28 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.25 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 26.77 billion at January 10. Exchange rate: S/. 2.692 per dollar. International reserves amounts to US$ 49.57 billion. Credit and liquidity at December 15, 2011. Trade balance January-November recorded a surplus of US$ 7.58 billion. Country risk at 211 basis points. Lima Stock Exchange. Friday, 13 Jan 2012 19:07:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-01-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2012/weekly-report-01-2012.pdf Corporate interest rate in nuevos soles at 5.27 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.25 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 26.94 billion at January 3. Exchange rate: S/. 2.696 per dollar. International reserves amount to US$ 48.82 billion. Inflation in December: 0.27 percent. BCRP Survey on macroeconomic expectations: December 2011. Country risk at 206 basis points. Lima Stock Exchange. Friday, 6 Jan 2012 18:58:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2012/documento-de-trabajo-01-2012.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2012/documento-de-trabajo-01-2012.pdf An extensive literature suggests that early nutritional deficiencies have long-term implications on human capital accumulation and labor market productivity. Cash conditional transfer programs that target poor families have the potential of providing long-term benefits to those benefited early in life. This study explores the impact of Juntos, a large-scale cash conditional transfer program operating in Peru since 2005, on the nutritional status of children below the age of five years. Due to the non-experimental nature of the program, two methodologies are applied: (a) propensity score matching and diff-in-diff propensity score matching; and, (b) estimations with district and maternal fixed effects. Results suggest that the program reduced the prevalence of extreme undernutrition. In addition, conditional on being a recipient of the program, positive effects on nutritional status are found due to the length of the exposition for children with relatively well educated mothers. Thursday, 5 Jan 2012 16:08:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2011/Weekly-Report-52-2011.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2011/Weekly-Report-52-2011.pdf Corporate interest rate in nuevos soles at 5.38 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.24 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 27.23 billion at December 27. Exchange rate: S/. 2.695 per dollar. International reserves amounted to US$ 48.68 billion. Country risk at 207 basis points. Lima Stock Exchange. Thursday, 29 Dec 2011 19:54:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2011/Documento-de-Trabajo-23-2011.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2011/Documento-de-Trabajo-23-2011.pdf El objetivo de esta investigación es evaluar el efecto hoja de balance en la economía peruana. Para ello, se utilizó información contable, para el periodo 1998-2009, de 114 empresas del sector real. En una primera etapa, se estimaron diversas especificaciones sin incluir variables de control del efecto competitividad, lo que permitió determinar qué efecto es mayor: el efecto competitividad (positivo) o el efecto patrimonio (negativo). Se encontró un efecto hoja de balance negativo y estadísticamente significativo, lo que da evidencia que el efecto patrimonio fue mayor que el efecto competitividad. Es decir, después de una depreciación real las empresas que mantienen deuda en dólares invierten relativamente menos que las empresas que sólo mantienen deuda en moneda nacional. Estos resultados son robustos al método de estimación y a la inclusión de variables de control que miden el impacto de otros choques macroeconómicos, alternativos al tipo de cambio. En una segunda etapa, se incluyó controles del efecto competitividad, lo que permitió estimar el efecto patrimonio y el efecto competitividad por separado. Los resultados muestran un efecto patrimonio negativo y un efecto competitividad positivo, ambos estadísticamente significativos. Thursday, 29 Dec 2011 14:53:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2011/Documento-de-Trabajo-22-2011.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2011/Documento-de-Trabajo-22-2011.pdf This paper evaluates the qualitative and quantitative implications of financial dedollarization of firms' liabilities on real aggregates in a small open economy model. We extend the standard Cespedes, Chang, and Velasco (2004) model by allowing entrepreneurs borrow in both foreign and domestic currency so as to finance firms' capital needs. A real depreciation reduces the value of firms' net worth whenever there is a currency mismatch in their balance sheets. Under flexible exchange rates, a lower degree of dollarization lessens the negative impact on output and investment, since there is a smaller increase in the cost of external borrowing. The quantitative results show that the balance sheet channel accounts for about 70 percent of the output and investment drop in Peru following the Russian Crisis, and a reduction in debt dollarization would have reduced output drop in 0.9 percentage points of GDP. Thursday, 29 Dec 2011 14:52:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2011/Documento-de-Trabajo-21-2011.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2011/Documento-de-Trabajo-21-2011.pdf We study the relationship between economic growth and poverty in Peru during the 2000´s. After applying several methodologies, we found evidence that support the claim that the economic growth in this decade was pro-poor. Tuesday, 27 Dec 2011 12:04:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2011/Weekly-Report-51-2011.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2011/Weekly-Report-51-2011.pdf Corporate interest rate in nuevos soles at 5.34 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.24 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 27.01 billion at December 20. Exchange rate: S/. 2.695 per dollar. International reserves amounted to US$ 48.89 billion. GDP recorded a growth rate of 5.1 percent in October. Liquidity and credit to the private sector at November 30. Non-financial public sector recorded surplus of S/. 608 million in November. Country risk at 218 basis points. Lima Stock Exchange. Thursday, 22 Dec 2011 19:05:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2011/Documento-de-Trabajo-20-2011.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2011/Documento-de-Trabajo-20-2011.pdf The document assesses the impact of remittances over a set of economic indicators for Peru. The constant growth of this flow of resources over the past two decades motivates this study. We measure the contribution of remittances in three areas: economic growth, poverty and hours worked. We found that the remittances have contributed significantly to the economic growth. Likewise, since migrants are mostly educated (in relative terms), remittances contribute marginally in reducing poverty. Finally, remittances reduce the hours of work. Thursday, 22 Dec 2011 10:55:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2011/Documento-de-Trabajo-19-2011.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2011/Documento-de-Trabajo-19-2011.pdf Under inflation targeting and other related monetary policy regimes, the identification of non-transitory in ation and forecasts about future inflation constitute key ingredients for monetary policy decisions. In practice, central banks perform these tasks using so-called "core inflation measures". In this paper we construct alternative core inflation measures using wavelet functions and multiresolution analysis (MRA), and then evaluate their relevance for monetary policy. The construction of wavelet-based core inflation measures (WIMs) is relatively new in the literature and their assessment has not been addressed formally, this paper being the first attempt to perform both tasks for the case of Peru. Another main contribution of this paper is that it proposes a VAR-based long-run criterion as an alternative criteria for evaluating core inflation measures. Evidence from Peru shows that WIMs are superior to official core inflation in terms of both the proposed criterion and forecast-based criteria. Tuesday, 20 Dec 2011 10:41:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Reserves-Management/2011/International-Reserves-November-2011.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Reserves-Management/2011/International-Reserves-November-2011.pdf At the end of November 2011, gross international reserves (GIR) amounted to USD 49 091 million, USD 327 million higher than the previous month. Monday, 19 Dec 2011 16:15:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2011/Documento-de-Trabajo-18-2011.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2011/Documento-de-Trabajo-18-2011.pdf This paper investigates the empirical relationship between credit and output in Peru. The analysis is based on the estimation of vector error correction models and the identification of structural shocks. The models considered include real output, real credit growth (in domestic currency, foreign currency and both), and terms of trade. Using quarterly data for the period 1994-2011, the results suggest that real credit growth contain useful information to understand the evolution of the non-deterministic component of real output. In particular, the results show that: (i) there exist a stable long-run relationship between real credit growth, output and terms of trade, (ii) real credit growth is useful in forecasting output in the long-run, and (iii) a structural permanent shock in real credit has positive permanent effects on output. Therefore, credit aggregates could be useful as indicator variables for policymakers. Friday, 16 Dec 2011 15:19:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2011/Documento-de-Trabajo-17-2011.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2011/Documento-de-Trabajo-17-2011.pdf An extensive literature documents linkages between early nutritional deficiencies and reduced cognitive ability, educational attainment and, ultimately, lower labor market performance. Few of these studies, however, have shown these correlations to be genuinely causal. We reexamine the nutrition and cognition link, applying instrumental variable methods to a sibling-difference specification for a sample of Peruvian pre-school children. We use household shocks and food price changes as instruments. As such our analysis also quantifies the nutritional and cognitive costs of the 2006-08 global food price crisis. We find that there are significant and negative cognitive effects of early childhood nutritional disinvestments: a decrease in Height-for-Age z-score leads to a reduction in the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test score of 17-21 percent. The accumulated deficits are sizeable considering that these children are only 3-6 years old and are yet to enroll in formal schooling, with deficits likely to widen in later years. Friday, 16 Dec 2011 15:16:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2011/Weekly-Report-50-2011.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2011/Weekly-Report-50-2011.pdf Corporate interest rate in nuevos soles at 5.35 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.25 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 25.48 billion at December 13. Exchange rate: S/. 2.697 per dollar. International reserves amounted to US$ 49.16 billion. Country risk at 215 basis points. Lima Stock Exchange. Friday, 16 Dec 2011 13:27:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2011/Weekly-Report-49-2011.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2011/Weekly-Report-49-2011.pdf Corporate interest rate in nuevos soles at 5.37 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.25 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 25.71 billion at December 6. Exchange rate: S/. 2.698 per dollar. International reserves amount to US$ 49.33 billion. Credit and liquidity at November 15. Inflation in November: 0.43 percent. BCRP Survey on Macroeconomic Expectations: November 2011. Trade balance showed surplus of US$ 623 million in October. Country risk at 211 basis points. Lima Stock Exchange. Friday, 9 Dec 2011 18:20:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2011/Weekly-Report-48-2011.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2011/Weekly-Report-48-2011.pdf Corporate interest rate in nuevos soles at 5.37 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.26 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 24.8 billion at November 29. Exchange rate: S/. 2.707 per dollar. International reserves amount to US$ 49.05 billion. Country risk at 238 basis points. Lima Stock Exchange. Friday, 2 Dec 2011 12:47:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Reserves-Management/2011/International-Reserves-October-2011.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Reserves-Management/2011/International-Reserves-October-2011.pdf At the end of October 2011, gross international reserves (GIR) amounted to USD 48 764 million, USD 655 million higher than the previous month. Monday, 28 Nov 2011 16:44:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2011/Weekly-Report-47-2011.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2011/Weekly-Report-47-2011.pdf MACROECONOMIC REPORT Q3-2011: Domestic demand grew 6.3 percent in Q3. Current account surplus: 0.3 percent of GDP in Q3-2011. Non-financial public sector: Surplus of 1.2 percent of GDP in Q3-2011. WEEKLY ECONOMIC REPORT: Non financial public sector recorded surplus of S/. 456 million in October. Liquidity and credit to the private sector at October 31. Corporate interest rate in nuevos soles at 5.37 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.26 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 24.6 billion at November 22. International reserves at US$ 48.86 billion. Country risk at 231 basis points. Lima Stock Exchange. Friday, 25 Nov 2011 20:57:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2011/Weekly-Report-46-2011.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2011/Weekly-Report-46-2011.pdf Corporate interest rate in nuevos soles at 5.29 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.26 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 24.6 billion at November 15. International reserves amount to US$ 48.95 billion. Seasonally adjusted GDP: Faster pace of growth for two straight months. Country risk at 199 basis points. Lima Stock Exchange. Friday, 18 Nov 2011 17:28:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2011/Documento-de-Trabajo-16-2011.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2011/Documento-de-Trabajo-16-2011.pdf Literatura reciente ha establecido que aumentos repentinos en el nivel de incertidumbre global generan caídas de la actividad alrededor del mundo. Trabajos teóricos predicen que no todos los sectores de las economías deberían verse afectados de la misma manera. En este trabajo se estima el impacto de shocks de incertidumbre globales (i.e. un fuerte incremento en la volatilidad del mercado accionario estadounidense) sobre sectores de la economía chilena y peruana. Mediante vectores autorregresivos se encuentra que la caída del PIB alcanza 1,7 y 1,0% respecto al crecimiento de su tendencia, para Chile y Perú respectivamente, ambas cercanas a los 3 trimestres siguientes de ocurrido el shock. A nivel sectorial, en Chile la caída más pronunciada se observa en el sector construcción (cerca de -4,0 %), mientras que por el lado de la demanda es el consumo durable (alrededor de -7,0 %) y maquinarias y equipos (-10,0 %). Para el caso peruano, se destacan la caída de la inversión (-4,5 %) por el lado de la demanda, y del sector manufacturero (-4,0 %) por el lado de la oferta. Tuesday, 15 Nov 2011 15:34:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2011/Weekly-Report-45-2011.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2011/Weekly-Report-45-2011.pdf Interest rate in nuevos soles at 5.30 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.28 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 24.86 billion at November 8. International reserves: US$ 48.9 billion. Liquidity and credit at October 15. Non-traditional exports grew 29.1 percent in September. Country risk dropped to 190 basis points. Lima Stock Exchange. Friday, 11 Nov 2011 17:25:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2011/Weekly-Report-44-2011.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2011/Weekly-Report-44-2011.pdf Corporate interest rate in nuevos soles at 5.43 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.27 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 24.9 billion at October 31. International reserves amount to US$ 48.7 billion. Inflation in October: 0.31 percent. BCRP Survey on Macroeconomic Expectations: October 201. Average country risk in October at 233 basis points. Lima Stock Exchange. Friday, 4 Nov 2011 18:03:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2011/Weekly-Report-43-2011.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2011/Weekly-Report-43-2011.pdf Corporate interest rate in nuevos soles at 5.43 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.27 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 24.7 billion at October 25. International reserves amounted to US$ 48.31 billion. Liquidity and credit at September 30. Non-financial public sector recorded surplus of S/. 908 million in September. Country risk at 219 basis points. Lima Stock Exchange. Friday, 28 Oct 2011 19:43:00 -0500