http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/ Política monetaria, Publicaciones, Estadísticas, Transparencia es-pe http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/ webmaster@bcrp.gob.pe http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-23-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-23-2013.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 4.49 percent. Average interbank rate at 4.28 percent. Foreign exchange rate: S/. 2.712 per US dollar. Net international reserves amount to US$ 67.03 billion. Inflation in Metropolitan Lima: 0.19 percent in May. The volume of exports grew 2.7 percent in April. Country risk at 133 basis points in May. Lima Stock Exchange. Friday, 7 Jun 2013 20:04:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2013/documento-de-trabajo-07-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2013/documento-de-trabajo-07-2013.pdf This paper analyzes how terms of trade affect aggregate productivity using a two-country monopolistic competitive business cycle model driven by aggregate technology shocks. The inefficiency of the equilibrium implies that each country’s productivity is affected by the terms of trade. This introduces a novel mechanism for business cycle synchronization. Moreover, for each country, foreign technology shocks have almost the same effects as domestic technology shocks. The paper also shows how terms of trade movements can lead to excess volatility of consumption and highly persistent productivity. On the quantitative side, the model delivers a degree of business cycle synchronization that is close to the actual comovement of the U.S. economy with the rest of the world. The model also implies that for some small open economies, specially emerging economies, foreign shocks can outperform domestic shocks in explaining their business cycles. Finally, the paper provides a quantification of the influence of the terms of trade on emerging countries’ productivity and finds that it can be large. Friday, 31 May 2013 21:00:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-22-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-22-2013.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 4.37 percent. Average interbank rate at 4.25 percent. Foreign exchange rate: S/. 2.678 per US dollar. International reserves amount to US$ 66.10 billion. Liquidity and credit to the private sector at May 15. Country risk at 156 basis points. Lima Stock Exchange. Friday, 31 May 2013 19:15:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-21-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-21-2013.pdf MACROECONOMIC REPORT - Q1-2013: GDP grew 4.8 percent in Q1-2013. Long-term private capital inflows amounted US$ 6 billion in Q1-2013. The non-financial public sector recorded a surplus of 5.9 percent of GDP in Q1-2013. Showing a continued rising trend, the ratio of monetization of liquidity reached 34 percent of GDP in Q1-2013. Total investment reached 29.0 percent of GDP in the first quarter of 2013. WEEKLY REPORT: Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 4.35 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.25 percent. Foreign exchange rate: S/. 2.646 per US dollar. Net International Reserves amounted to US$ 66.72 billion. Gross Domestic Product grew 3.0 percent in March. Non-financial public sector registered a surplus of S/. 2.83 billion in April 2013. Liquidity and credit to the private sector at April 30. Friday, 24 May 2013 20:52:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-20-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-20-2013.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 4.34 percent. Average interbank rate at 4.25 percent. Foreign Exchange rate: S/. 2.601 per dollar. Net international reserves amount to US$ 68.22 billion. Country risk fell to 112 basis points. Lima Stock Exchange. Friday, 17 May 2013 19:53:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-19-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-19-2013.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 4.35 percent. Average interbank rate at 4.25 percent. Foreign Exchange rate: S/. 2.613 por dólar. Net international reserves amount to US$ 68.22 billion. BCRP Survey on Macroeconomic Expectations: April 2013. Trade balance: Surplus of US$ 200 million in March. Country risk at 121 basis points. Lima Stock Exchange. Friday, 10 May 2013 17:53:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-18-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-18-2013.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 4.41 percent. Average interbank rate at 4.20 percent. Foreign exchange rate: S/. 2.645 per US dollar. Net international reserves amount to US$ 68.26 billion. Inflation in Metropolitan Lima: 0,25 percent in April. Liquidity and credit to the private sector at April 15. Average country risk at 133 basis points in April. Lima Stock Exchange. Friday, 3 May 2013 21:17:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-17-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-17-2013.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 4.38 percent. Average interbank rate at 4.19 percent. Foreign exchange rate: S/. 2.589 per US dollar. Net international reserves amount to US$ 68.9 billion. Non-financial public sector registered a surplus of S/. 2.1 billion in March 2013. Liquidity and credit to the private sector at March 31. Country risk at 129 basis points. Lima Stock Exchange. Friday, 26 Apr 2013 20:54:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-16-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-16-2013.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 4.38 percent. Average interbank rate at 4.20 percent. Foreign exchange rate: S/. 2.589 per US dollar. Net international reserves amount to US$ 69.38 billion. GDP grew 5.0 percent in February. Country risk at 128 basis points. Lima Stock Exchange. Friday, 19 Apr 2013 18:06:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Reserves-Management/2013/international-reserves-march-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Reserves-Management/2013/international-reserves-march-2013.pdf At the end of March 2013, gross international reserves (GIR) amounted to USD 67 975 million, USD 285 million higher than the previous month. Wednesday, 17 Apr 2013 15:56:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-15-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-15-2013.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 4.43 percent. Average interbank rate at 4.24 percent. Foreign Exchange rate: S/. 2.577 per dólar. Net international reserves amount to US$ 69.5 billion. BCRP Survey on Macroeconomic Expectations: March 2013. Trade balance: Deficit of US$ 162 million in February 2013. Country risk at 129 basis points at April 9, 2013. Lima Stock Exchange. Friday, 12 Apr 2013 17:42:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2013/documento-de-trabajo-06-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2013/documento-de-trabajo-06-2013.pdf The paper evaluates the theoretical and empirical literature about the link between exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic performance. The main conclusion is that the distinction between fixed and floating exchange rate regimes seems important for developing economies but not for developed ones. In particular, flexible exchange rate regimes tend to be more favorable for an emerging economy on theoretical and empirical grounds surveyed in the broad literature. However, the existing evidence is not totally robust to the way the literature classifies regimes. Tuesday, 9 Apr 2013 16:11:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2013/documento-de-trabajo-05-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2013/documento-de-trabajo-05-2013.pdf The paper identifies the statistical association between a group of variables describing the banking system and a set of macroeconomic variables. Also, the paper explains the statistical features of the main financial indicators at the level of banks and the links between them. We gather evidence about basic factors that have to be taken into account in the building of forecasting models and stress testing exercises. The results help to set basic patterns about what is useful to model banking system at the aggregate and disaggregate levels. Tuesday, 9 Apr 2013 16:09:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2013/documento-de-trabajo-04-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2013/documento-de-trabajo-04-2013.pdf The Consumer Confidence Index of APOYO Consultoría (INDICCA) is computed based on the responses to ten questions of a monthly survey in the city of Lima which aim to reflect the consumers’ spending intentions. We evaluate some sub-components of INDICCA in terms of their predictive and explanatory power of private consumption. In this process, we also evaluate the disaggregation on socioeconomic levels of this index, and a synthetic indicator of confidence based on dynamic factor models suggested by Jonsson and Lindén (2009) as an alternative way to combine the information contained in the sub-components of this index. We find that the explanatory and predictive power of private consumption models in Peru is enhanced when consumer confidence indices are included. However, this improvement is only marginal when other control variables such as employment or inflation are added. In particular, the optimal consumer confidence indicator is the synthetic indicator constructed with the dynamic factor model procedure. The results presented in this paper, although valid for some sub-components, are still inconclusive for the overall INDICCA. Tuesday, 9 Apr 2013 16:07:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2013/documento-de-trabajo-03-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2013/documento-de-trabajo-03-2013.pdf We use the results of business tendency surveys (BTS) to forecast private investment growth in Peru, exploring the possible non-linear link between the BTS and private investment for forecasting purposes. We find that business confidence indices extracted from BTS, in particular the one calculated by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (CRBP), are useful to forecast private investment growth in Peru. Moreover, models constructed only with indices extracted from BTS have a higher predictive power than models including control variables such as lagged GDP growth, inflation or interest rates. We also find that non-linear models are not superior to linear ones in forecasting Peruvian private investment. Additionally, the linear model finally selected would allow us to estimate real private investment growth for the current quarter with a 75-day lead with respect to the official publication date, almost twice the lead associated with the estimation methodology used by practitioners. Tuesday, 9 Apr 2013 16:05:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-14-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-14-2013.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 4.55 percent. Average interbank rate at 4.24 percent. Foreign Exchange rate: S/. 2.588 por dólar. Net international reserves amount to US$ 68.9 billion. Inflation in Metropolitan Lima: 0,91 percent in March. Liquidity and credit to the private sector at March 15. Fund transfers handled through payment systems grew 26 percent between January and February 2013. Country risk at 140 basis points in March. Lima Stock Exchange. Friday, 5 Apr 2013 19:10:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-13-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-13-2013.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 4.63 percent. Average interbank rate at 4.24 percent. Foreign exchange rate: S/. 2.587 per US dollar. Net international reserves amount to US$ 68.32 billion. Country risk at 147 basis points. Lima Stock Exchange Wednesday, 27 Mar 2013 18:12:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-12-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-12-2013.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 4.64 percent. Average interbank rate at 4.24 percent. Foreign exchange rate: S/. 2.596 per US dollar.Net international reserves amount to US$ 68.31 billion. GDP grew 6.2 percent in January. Non-financial public sector registered a surplus of S/. 1.31 billion in February 2013. Country risk at 152 basis points. Lima Stock Exchange Friday, 22 Mar 2013 20:11:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Reserves-Management/2013/international-reserves-february-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Reserves-Management/2013/international-reserves-february-2013.pdf At the end of February 2013, gross international reserves (GIR) amounted to USD 67 690 million, USD 595 million higher than the previous month. Tuesday, 19 Mar 2013 13:23:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-11-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-11-2013.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 4.64 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.24 percent. Foreign exchange rate: S/. 2.594 per US dollar. Net international reserves reached US$ 68.40 billion. Country risk declined to 127 basis points. Lima Stock Exchange. Friday, 15 Mar 2013 19:43:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-10-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-10-2013.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 4.76 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.24 percent. Foreign exchange rate: S/. 2.595 per US dollar. Net international reserves amount to US$ 67.98 billion. Inflation in Metropolitan Lima: -0.09 percent in February. BCRP Survey on Macroeconomic Expectations: February 2013. Trade balance: Deficit of US$ 484 million in January 2013. Average country risk in February was 127 basis points. Lima Stock Exchange. Friday, 8 Mar 2013 17:46:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-09-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-09-2013.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 4.80 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.19 percent. Foreign exchange rate: S/. 2.585 per US dollar. Net international reserves amount to US$ 67.78 billion. Liquidity and credit to the private sector at January 31, 2013. Country risk increased to 139 basis points. Friday, 1 Mar 2013 19:50:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-08-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-08-2013.pdf MACROECONOMIC REPORT - Q4-2012: GDP grew 5.9 percent in Q4 and recorded a growth rate of 6.3 percent in 2012. The deficit in the current account was equivalent to 3.6 percent of GDP in Q4 and to 3.6 percent of GDP in 2012. The non-financial public sector registered a deficit equivalent to 6.2 percent of GDP in Q4 and accumulated an annual surplus of GDP of 2.1 percent of GDP in 2012. The monetization ratio reached 33.4 percent in Q4-2012 and continues rising. WEEKLY ECONOMIC REPORT: Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 4.84 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.16 percent. Foreign exchange rate: S/. 2.583 per US dollar. Net international reserves amount to US$ 67.16 billion. Gross domestic product grew 4.3 percent in December 2012. Non-financial public sector recorded a surplus of S/. 4.70 billion in January 2013. Friday, 22 Feb 2013 18:57:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Reserves-Management/2013/international-reserves-january-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Reserves-Management/2013/international-reserves-january-2013.pdf At the end of January 2013, gross international reserves (GIR) amounted to USD 67 095 million, USD 3 047 million higher than the previous month. Tuesday, 19 Feb 2013 18:24:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-07-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-07-2013.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 4.91 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.14 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 30.74 billion at February 12, 2013. Exchange rate: S/. 2.578 per US dollar. Net international reserves amount to US$ 67.6 billion. Country risk at 122 basis points. Friday, 15 Feb 2013 18:41:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-06-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-06-2013.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 4.90 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.10 percent. Currency in circulation: S/. 31.33 billion at February 5, 2013. Exchange rate: S/. 2.576 per US dollar. Net international reserves amount to US$ 67.35 billion. Inflation in Metropolitan Lima: 0.12 percent in January 2013. BCRP Survey on Macroeconomic Expectations: January 2013. Average country risk in January was 112 basis points. Accumulated profitability at the Lima Stock Exchange: 5.3 percent. Friday, 8 Feb 2013 18:37:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-05-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-05-2013.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 4.88 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.15 percent. Exchange rate: S/. 2.563 per US dollar. Net international reserves at US$ 66.94 billion. Liquidity and credit to the private sector at January 15, 2013. Increased use of cashless electronic payments in 2012. Country risk at 112 basis points. Friday, 1 Feb 2013 19:25:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2013/documento-de-trabajo-02-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2013/documento-de-trabajo-02-2013.pdf In contrast to the past, many emerging countries faced the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 with more solid financial positions and the required credibility and capacity to conduct countercyclical policies. This allowed them to better cope with the global downturn and thus behave more similarly to developed countries. This paper documents the policy responses and discusses other factors that allowed emerging countries to partially absorb the negative external shock. In particular, it characterizes (i) monetary and exchange rate policies, (ii) fiscal policy, and (iii) external and domestic financial positions. Wednesday, 30 Jan 2013 18:23:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2013/documento-de-trabajo-01-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Documentos-de-Trabajo/2013/documento-de-trabajo-01-2013.pdf We investigate the returns to capital and capital accumulation using panel data of Peruvian micro enterprises (MEs). Marginal returns to capital are found to be very high at low levels of capital, but rapidly decreasing at higher levels. The dynamic analyses of capital accumulation in MEs suggest that credit constraints explain a major part of the variation in firm growth. We find a very large positive effect of household non-business wealth on capital stocks of MEs. We also show a sizable effect of risk on accumulation and pronounced interactions between wealth and risk. The presented evidence is consistent with poorly endowed entrepreneurs who operate in imperfect capital markets and a very risky environment. Wednesday, 30 Jan 2013 18:22:00 -0500 http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-04-2013.pdf http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Publications/Weekly-Reports/2013/weekly-report-04-2013.pdf Corporate prime rate in nuevos soles at 4.89 percent. Average interbank interest rate at 4.14 percent. Exchange rate: S/. 2.555 per US dollar. Net international reserves at US$ 66.31 billion. Liquidity and credit to the private sector at December 31, 2012. Non-financial public sector registered a deficit of S/. 8.46 billion in December. Country risk at 111 basis points. Accumulated profitability at the Lima Stock Exchange: 4.8 percent. Friday, 25 Jan 2013 17:29:00 -0500