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WP 2016-12: The dynamic response of the Current Account to Commodity Prices shocks in Mining and Non-mining exporting economies

WP 2016-12
TitleThe dynamic response of the Current Account to Commodity Prices shocks in Mining and Non-mining exporting economies
Author(s) Fernando Pérez Forero and Sergio Serván
Language English
Date 2016/12/31
Abstract

The boom and bust of Commodity Prices have had a significant macroeconomic impact on commodity-exporter economies. This paper assesses the dynamic impact of Commodity Prices on the Current Account surplus for several commodity-exporter economies. Because these economies share several economic features, and since they are subject to the same external shocks, it is necessary to estimate their behavior simultaneously. Moreover, the impact of these shocks might be different along the sample of analysis. Thus, we estimate a Panel VAR model with dynamic inter-dependencies and time varying parameters. Within this framework, we have computed an average current account indicator and studied the responses of individual current account balances to shocks in fuel and metal prices. We have found that our common indicator for the current account follows closely the dynamic pattern of the commodity price index i.e. surpluses (deficit) are usually associated with increases (decreases) in commodity prices, and this indicator is statistically significant across the sample of analysis. At the country level, by comparing the impulse response functions, we found that commodity price shocks have a similar effect across countries, although their magnitude differ. In general, our results suggest that the impact on the current account balances have increased since 2002. In the case of a fuel shock, we do not found significant current account responses. However, the evidence for a metal shock is more robust, with higher responses in the case of the metal-exporting countries.

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